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1pm - Wednesday, February 10th, 2011
11pm - Tuesday, February 9th, 2011 Snows' over folks. Last one of the year? Warmer pattern will set in next week. Temps will be cold tonight and even colder for Thursday night. Mid 30s for Friday, 40's on Saturday... AND .... 50's for Sun, Mon and Tue.
Friday: Sunny, with a high near
37. Wind chill values as low as zero. Southwest wind between 6 and 14 mph.
Snow on ground at Bowling Green/Official (this counts some from earlier in the week): 5 inches
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Chris Jessie
12 Noon - Tuesday, February 9th, 2011 Snow continues... more this afternoon and tonight. Still watching to see the major moisture flow makes it this far north. If it does, we could be in for several more inches of snow for this evening and tonight. Mid west is snowed in today.
5am - Tuesday, February 9th, 2011 Plenty of cold air for today and tonight's snow potential... How much moisture makes it this far north and east is the question...??? Discussion coming a little later this morning. Radar is already showing returns, even though the indicated precip as of about 5am is not reaching the ground. A few school closings are coming in.
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Chris Jessie
8am - Tuesday, February 8th, 2011 Most of the area picked up 2-3 inches late afternoon and evening Monday. The actual snow total is higher because much of it melted as it began falling in the afternoon hours. Most all the county school systems are closed around the region.
Discussion on Wednesday System: We're on the north sector of the precip. With temps only getting to about 30 for a high, all precip for this event should be snow. The Upper Cumberland is looking a little warmer for Wednesday afternoon evening.
Temps Mid-day Wed... 1pm... then 4pm... notice the warming into the Upper Cumberland.
Precip Mid-day Wed... (Noon to 6pm precip and then 6pm to Midnite precip)
I still think an inch or so Wednesday afternoon and then about 2 in the evening. So.. 3-5 total. This is based on a higher snow/liquid ratio. I think they could be closer to 14:1 than 10:1... that helps up the accumulations.
I'll post more later today after new runs come out.
2pm - Monday, February 7th, 2011
Snow still holding along that I-65 area... Moisture is moving north and east... Will likely be gone by the time temps really drop enough for significant accumulation. Heavier totals will be along and west of I65, where a lot of areas already have snow cover from this morning.
11am - Monday, February 7th, 2011 Quick Post... Temps west of I65 are not where the forecast had them for today. Temps near Columbia and in Casey County climbed to 40... in between is a gradient. Snow to our west is also a little heavier than expected.
Several schools are dismissing around the western part of the listening area.
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Chris Jessie
8am - Friday, February 4th, 2011 Check out this traffic net pic from Chicago from this week.
Many of the people in the left pic say they ignored warnings to go home earlier and not to take the lake shore route that ended up trapping their vehicles.
7am - Friday, February 4th, 2011 Winter Weather Advisory tonight for areas along I65 and to the north and west. Snow late evening/after midnite will end by Saturday morning. Temps will rise into the mid 30's but may be held back with some snowpak. Roads should be in good shape by mid- morning as solar effects take hold. Secondary roads may take a little longer to melt off.
2+ inches possible in Advisory area. 1-2 inches for areas to the south and east of the advisory.
Next weeks snow?? Valentine weekend storm?? Discussion later today.
11am - Tuesday, February 1st, 2011 Cold..... brrrrrrrr.... Wind-chill factor..... brrrrrrrr.
Winds will really kick it up later this afternoon. Wind Advisory through Wednesday afternoon. Temps will drop QUICKLY after the front pushes through and light snow will be possible. A dusting is the target for most of us. Winds will also make it a "blowing snow" type setup.
From Texas borders up to Michigan/Canada... BLIZZARD Warnings are in place. This is not a common event... such a widespread Blizzard type storm is rare.
Good news for the "No-Snowers" here.... the ridge over the SE US will block the southern part of this storm from advancing east... it will ride over southeast for the most part.
Some schools may end up being out on Wednesday... more likely for north/west counties in our area. So the question remains: Will the kids get in a full week for the first time since early December?
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Chris Jessie
1pm - Monday, January 31st, 2011 Bye-bye January... We'll finish the month with higher than average snow totals and when the numbers are finalized tomorrow, we'll see it as one of the snowiest in recent decades for the overall month.
The nasty storm in the mid-west will have snow on the north half, well above us here in Central / Southern Kentucky. If you are traveling into Central Indiana/Illinois/Ohio it will be difficult.
We will see a lot of rain and very windy conditions Tuesday night/Wednesday. Some snow showers will be on the back side of the storm late Tuesday and Wednesday as temps plunge. The winds will make it seem VERY cold, although temps will not be frigid by the thermometer's standard.
We are not expecting any accumulations out of this system, but maybe a dusting... and blowing snow on Wednesday.
Will schools around the area actually get a full week in? Wednesday would be the day, if not.
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Chris Jessie
2pm - Wednesday, January 26th, 2011 Temps are in the upper 20's. Re-freezing is starting to take place now that the height of the day has passed. Just a few flurries at most for the remainder of the day and into tonight. Warmer temps for highs later this week and weekend. No more accumulating snow in the 7-day outlook.
7am - Wednesday, January 26th, 2011 Had a great time yesterday with the Edmonton-Metcalfe Chamber of Commerce radio membership drive... CD Day. Thanks to all who joined/renewed membership.
Snows still coming down. Still think snows will end up being lighter than the original forecasts. Temps overnight did not drop beyond 32 here locally. They dipped more to our west/north.
Updates later.
12 Noon - Monday, January 24th, 2011 Warmer temps today: mid-40's Above Freezing Tonight: low-33/34 Tuesday: 40 and falling in the evening... but how far and how quick? Now, for Tuesday night/Wednesday...
The maps above are 6-hour QPF estimates for (local times) Noon Tue, 6p Tue, Midnite Wed & 6a Wed. The maps below are corresponding temp estimates.
You've probably gotten heard various forecasts at this point calling for 1-2 inches of snow, but with the mid-day data, things are just looking too warm. Temps won't been at freezing until maybe near midnight going into Wednesday. By then, most of the moisture would be gone.
If you love snow, you're hoping for a more aggressive cold push and your hoping for the track to shift just about 25-50 miles north. Should these scenarios combine, a 4-6" snow event could take place for the Heart of Kentucky. Under this circumstance, a wet snow would be likely... well under a 10:1 snow to liquid ratio. However... I'm going very conservative at this point, I believe the current forecasts are being generous with snow at this point.
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Chris Jessie
7am - Friday, January 21st, 2011 Cold... 11 this morning at the studio. Roads are packed snow/ice layer covered. Grated roads will be very slick for a while this morning as the sun starts to melt ice... nothing slicker than wet ice.
Here's the assessment from yesterday's forecast/snow... Forecast was pretty close.
Timing yesterday was close, too. I had said several times on broadcasts and here that road conditions would deteriorate as temps dropped by about 3pm. The kink in the forecast yesterday was the warm air wedging into Southern Kentucky. That took place in Eastern Kentucky, and not as far west as I had anticipated... Knox County Mesonet reported 47 at around 2pm (see below). We only recorded 34 here at the studio for a high.. forecast was for 37. Doesn't sound like a lot (and normally we wouldn't be too disappointed by 3 degree forecast difference), but in the case with snow in the afternoon, it is a very important forecast variable. It allowed snow and not rain for much of our central and north/west listening areas. I-65 had a number a weather related accidents by mid-afternoon. Most other roads were simply wet until about 2-2:30, then the heavier snows started to accumulate on paved surfaces (later in the east).
Last night, clearing occurred pretty early in the west of our area. Helped temps fall more quickly.
Forecast: Today will struggle to get into the 20's. Tonight will be near single digits... localized area may see single digit lows.
Focus now turns to early next week.... snow/rain/mix? More details coming with an afternoon post.
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Chris Jessie
2:30pm Thursday, January 20th, 2011 Temps have topped out for the North and West parts of our area... starting to fall off now... About 30 minutes ahead of my expectations from yesterday and this morning's posts.
As of 11am:
As of 2:30pm:
The colder plunge is stronger than anticipated for today... Warm southern wedging is taking place further east than the models have shown. Look at Knox County... 47 degrees! 40's all over eastern KY.
Colder air pushing in may make the snow ratios go up. Starting out, 10:1 the snow to rain... If this "cold" pushes a bit more quickly this evening we could go up to 12 or 15:1... If there is enough moisture to support a burst of snow, it could be heavy and accumulate very quickly.
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Chris Jessie
1pm Thursday, January 20th, 2011
Some moderate snow being reported in Hart County, Edmonson County and Warren County... Ground temps still seem to be above 32 as everything is melting on paved surfaces, even though snow is sticking to elevated surfaces. I still think that roads will be ok until about the 3pm mark.
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Chris Jessie
11am - Thursday, January 20th, 2011 I'm guilty of localism... :o)
I've gotten several e-mails this morning about the afternoon outlooks... keep in mid that the further north/west you go, the lower the temp scale and the opposite to the south/east... areas from around Bardstown to E-town to Leitchfield will be right on that line of temps that allow for snow all day. Some of these places have already seen snow from this morning... I still believe that Warren, Barren, Hart, Green and areas to the south will not be greatly affected by snow until later this afternoon. Temps are already at 32-33 for these areas (34/35 toward state line), so even if snow does fall (unless it's HEAVY), it should not be a problem on the roads until temps start dropping later this afternoon.
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Chris Jessie
6am - Thursday, January 20th, 2011 Overnight temps did not fall into the upper 20s as expected. 32-33 locally as of 6am. Any snow showers this morning will not likely impact roadways. Temps will vary, (colder) from the north/west to the (warmer) south/east. That is also how the accumulation breakdown will likely occur. For the Heart of Kentucky, temps well into the 30s won't drop until after about 3-4 pm, so paved surface accumulations won't mount up until then. Grassy areas may receive accumulations a little earlier in the afternoon.
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Chris Jessie
9pm - Wednesday, January 19th, 2011 Quick post for tonight guys and gals...
Copied from my FaceBook post:
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Chris Jessie
12 Noon - Tuesday, January 18th, 2011 Everybody is looking ahead to Thursday... But real quick for tonight: Dusting of snow/sleet at most... Maybe some freezing drizzle... Slick spots will be possible, especially on overpasses and elevated surfaces. Since roads are wet today (and there have been heavy enough rains to actually clean the salt off of most of the surfaces), no pre-treat can go down. So, with temps in the mid-upper 20's overnight, there may be a few slick roads.
Now for Thursday... More consensus now about snows to the north. For SoCenKy, there is uncertainty about Thursday highs.... a tough variable to nail down (ground temps, too). I'm still having trouble seeing enough moisture for major accumulation AFTER the change over to snow. This is basically a guestimate for Central Kentucky... Metcalfe/Hart/Barren/Green/Adair... While areas to the north may see more snow and areas near the KY/TN border see more rain. It's hard to draw the rain-snow line right now for Thursday. Take note that as of right now, our area forecast high is 40-41. Thursday afternoon late, overnight and early Friday morning seem frame the window for timing of snow at this point.
Here is this morning's NWS statement concerning our area: INCLUDING
THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
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Chris Jessie
10:30am - Monday, January 17th, 2011 A lot of focus is now turning to Thursday's Forecast (I'm not overlooking Tuesday -- See below). Even the NWS is uncharacteristically upping the snow chance for 4 days out. The Central Kentucky Region has 70% snow chance according to the morning NWS outlook. Here is the 9am update for later this week: Thursday:
Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
More on the snow in just a sec... The most common aspect of the models is the intensity of the cold air moving in. Friday/Saturday will likely be the coldest temps of the season, so far. Storm track is the question. I still see more northern push with the heaviest snows beyond Louisville... Maybe even along the same track from last week's huge Indiana snow. However, if the next couple of day's models trend south... Potential is there for a major snow even here in Central Kentucky. Even if the track trends south, there are still several variables (most obvious: how far south) that must get in-tune for a big snow event to take place for our area.
Also want to mention Tuesday night. On the backside of the rain, snow showers will be possible. I temps look like upper 20's... certainly below freezing. While little accumulation is expected, there could be enough moisture remaining for causing some minor travel issues on Wednesday morning.
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Chris Jessie
9am - Monday, January 17th, 2011 Late week outlook posting coming up in just a little bit.... interesting. Snow/Cold???
7:30am - Monday, January 17th, 2011 Some freezing drizzle being reported this morning across Edmonson/Hart/Barren Counties. Surrounding areas also showing frozen returns on radar. Be careful on the overpasses, especially. We will rise above the 32 mark shortly this morning. Highs will be in the lower-mid 40s around the region.
NWS Statement: ...LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN...OR LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE FOR A BRIEF
6:30am - Thursday, January 13th, 2011 More snow showers overnight... moisture squeezing out with the cold temps. Dustings for most of the area overnight... flurries should taper off today.
After a quick shot of show showers on Saturday from a northern passing clipper, our next weather maker is looking more like a snow to rain type event. Leaning even more towards maybe all rain for late Sunday/Monday. I'll be posting more thoughts on the early week system a bit later today.
Enjoy another no-school day (for many of you)!!!
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Chris Jessie
5pm - Wednesday, January 12th, 2011 Schools are closed over much of the area for Thursday... Get the latest on the Snow Watch Page. Closings-Cancellations-Delays... Click Here
Flip a coin... problem is it doesn't have more than two sides... that's the early next week storm prediction method at this point. As we look at the various model outputs for early week, there is almost no common ground except for the fact that they all predict precipitation for the Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions. Temp zones are not in agreement which also means the precip types are also all over the board. I will say this: Various outputs suggest anything from the biggest snow of the year to a heavy rain event. Yes, there is a snow to rain and icing to rain interpretation, too. As I have been saying since Sunday, this is too far out and the current early next week forecasts only feature a shade of confidence. So --- To Be Continued.
Monday, I received an e-mail that asked why many of my posts look ahead to the next event as opposed to giving more attention to current weather or the "nowcast". I responded by writing back that so many people are technically inclined today... meaning that it's not to difficult to look up some basic terminology and see radar returns. (I will say that snow is the most difficult precip to do radar interpretation with.) So, if there's a large area of rain colored in over a map of Kentucky that features county boundaries, most people can translate that into basic concepts of time and movement... velocity... with relation to their location. My personal interest is typically in manipulating and giving interpretation to data that most people don't care to do. That's how longer ranged forecasts are produced. I enjoy the challenge of working through a 3-7 day outlook and stacking it up to what actually gets recorded. In my opinion, that is the area of forecasting that has come a long way in improvement over the past decade. I address this question here and today because it is especially challenging during the winter months... And I don't mind the snow!... So... Bring it on!!!
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Chris Jessie
7am - Wednesday, January 12th, 2011 Flurries this morning... You'll come up on areas of drifting snow as you travel most of the area roads. Remember that even though roads look wet or clear, you can come up on these blowing snow areas without any reaction time to slow down. 24 for a high today.
Weekend/Monday... snow, rain or ice???... still not a lot of agreement on NAM/GFS models for this one. QPF (total moisture) is showing some consistency, but the precip types are all over the place. So, maybe more model consistency will begin to show up tomorrow or Friday about Sunday/Monday, particularly.
Closings-Cancellations-Delays... Click Here for the 991 & WLOC Snow Watch Page
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Chris Jessie
6pm - Tuesday, January 11th, 2011 Most people are surprised to know that much of our local area has received nearly 2 inches of snowfall since last night. The solar energy from today helped to melt a lot of it, so the 2 inches never showed up on the ground at the same time as accumulation.
Off and on snow showers will be in the forecast for tonight. A quick dusting to 1/4 inch will be common with these snow showers. Flurries may linger into Wednesday morning. Most area schools have already called off classes. See our Snow Watch/Weather Watch page for more on closings.
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Chris Jessie
7am- Tuesday, January 11th, 2011 Light snow continues with heavier snow E-town - North... NEWS Louisville forecast estimates for today...
5am - Tuesday, January 11th, 2011 Light Snow across the region...
With temps in the upper 20's near 30, most treated roads are wet. However, any heavier bursts of snow may cause them to become covered as we go through the rush hours.
Heaviest accumulations today are still expected to be to our north. Around 1 inch total daytime accumulation through the Heart Of Kentucky.
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Chris Jessie
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- WLOC/WHSX Meteorologist, Chris Jessie
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